Likelihood describes the chance that a particular event occurs.

An outcome table is a table that shows all the possible outcomes.

Each branch of an outcome tree shows a possible outcome from an event or from a stage of a trial. The full outcome tree shows all possible outcomes.

Venn diagrams are a representation used to model statistical/probability questions. Commonly circles are used to represent events.

Problem solving with possible outcomes

Maths

Equally likely outcomes

Non-equally likely outcomes

The scale of likelihoods

Experiments to determine how likely an outcome is

Using lists to display outcomes for two events

Using two-way tables to display outcomes for two events

Using an outcome tree to display outcomes for two events

Using a Venn diagram to display outcomes for two events

Comparing representations of outcomes for two events

Using lists to display outcomes for more than two events

Using an outcome tree to display outcomes for more than two events

Using a Venn diagram to display outcomes for more than two events

Comparing representations of outcomes for more than two events

In this unit, pupils learn techniques for systematically listing all of the possible outcomes for both one event and two events. In the future unit, pupils use lists of outcomes to find theoretical probabilities

In this unit, pupils find all the factors of a number systematically and they understand that systematic listing is helpful in organising their work. The idea of being systematic is built on in this unit as pupils work to identify all possible outcomes

This unit introduces and explores the concept of liklihood as a relative measure, and demonstrates multiple ways to represent likelihood such as Venn diagrams, tree diagrams and two-way tables.

Probability: possible outcomes

Trial: The spinner is spun twice. The order of the two outcomes doesn't matter. The incomplete outcome table shows all outcomes of the trial. Match each letter the sample space to its value.

One outcome is more likely to happen than any other outcome.

Two equally likely outcomes are both the most likely to happen.

Two equally likely outcomes are both the least likely to happen.

The most likely outcome is three times as likely as the least likely outcome.

The most likely outcome is nine times as likely as the least likely outcome.

Trial: The spinner is spun twice. The order of the two outcomes doesn't matter. Which of these statements are correct for this trial?


is in between the least and most likely outcomes on a likelihood scale

Trial: The product of two spins of the spinner. This outcome table represents all outcomes of the trial. Match the start of each statement to the correct end of the statement.

The spinner is twice as likely to land on X compared to Y.

The spinner is twice as likely to land on Y compared to X.

The spinner is three times as likely to land on Y compared to X.

It is possible to split this spinner into 6 equally likely outcomes.

It is possible to split this spinner into 8 equally likely outcomes.

Trial: The spinner will be spun once. Which of these statements about one stage of this trial is correct?

Trial: The spinner will be spun twice, and the order of the two stages does not matter. Match the start of each statement to the correct outcome.

The most likely outcome is 4 times as likely than the least likely outcome.

The most likely outcome is 8 times as likely than the least likely outcome.

The most likely outcome is twice as likely than the second most likely outcome.

Trial: Spinner A and B are spun once each. The sum of the two outcomes is found. Which of these statements about the outcomes of this trial are correct?

The Venn diagram shows the sample space $$\xi$$ = {8, 81, 144, 201}. Match each region to the correct outcome.

Andeep likes science, but Sam does not like science.

Andeep does not like science, but Sam likes science.

The Venn diagram shows a selection of subjects that Andeep and Sam enjoy. Which of these statements is true for science?

Both the Venn diagram and outcome table represent the same two events from a trial. Match each lettered outcome from the outcome table to the correct outcome from the Venn diagram.

Trial: spinning this spinner once. Event 1: even number. Event 2: cube number. Which outcomes should be written inside the box?

Trial: a spinner is spun twice, with the two results multiplied together. Both incomplete diagrams represent the same trial. 
Match each letters to the correct outcome.

Trial: Spinner 1 is spun twice. The outcome of each spin is added together. This incomplete outcome tree shows all outcomes of this trial. 
Match each letter to its value in the sample space.

Problem solving with possible outcomes

Lesson outcome