Lesson video

Hello.

My name is Mr. March.

I'm here today to teach you all about energy futures contrasting views.

So grab everything that you need for today's lesson and let's get going.

So by the end of today's lesson, you will be able to explain why different groups have contrasting views about energy futures.

There are two key words for today's lesson.

Those are energy futures, and net zero.

Energy futures refers to different scenarios about ways in which energy might be produced, consumed, and managed in the future.

Net zero refers to balancing the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere with the amount removed from it.

There are two learning cycles for today's lesson.

I'm gonna start with learning cycle one, which is all about energy futures.

So we're gonna start this lesson with a really interesting graph.

The graph in front of you is presenting data from different sources from 1880-2018.

Now, on the y-axis then you can see what data is being represented there.

This is the temperature difference in degree celsius when compared to global mean, between 1951 and 1980.

Now along the x-axis then we can see the data goes from 1880 all the way up to 2018, more or less.

And therefore we can begin to see the temperature difference when compared with the global mean temperature between 1951 and 1980.

Now then, I got a question for you.

It's on the left-hand side.

It says, what would you predict will happen to global temperatures by 2050, and why? You may like to pause the video here whilst you really study that graph in front of you on the right-hand side and consider what your own answer to that question maybe or perhaps better still, have a discussion with someone near you.

So let's return to that question.

What would you predict will happen to global temperatures by 2050, and why? Now we've got some students now who have also been sort of talking or considering the answer to that question as well.

Let's start with Aisha.

Aisha says, "I continued the trend for the last 50 years and that gives a 1.

4 degrees Celsius warmer than average," and you can see that perfectly displayed on the graph there in front of you.

Our next scenario comes from Andeep.

Now Andeep says that, "Now that countries are switching to renewable energy," which means less carbon dioxide, "the trend may slow to 1.

0 degrees Celsius." This is another potential scenario as well.

Our third and final student is Izzy.

Now Izzy says, "Don't forget the rapid rise in global demand for energy.

I predict a rise of over 2.

5 degrees Celsius," and this is absolutely correct.

Energy consumption is growing around the world with emerging countries increasingly using technology which uses more energy.

So perhaps, Izzy is correct in predicting this 2.

5 degrees Celsius increase.

Let's try to understand this now in a little bit more detail.

So energy futures as outlined by those three different students there are different scenarios about energy use and its impacts over the next decades.

There are two main energy future scenarios.

One is business-as-usual, absolutely nothing changes.

And the second one is sustainable.

The business-as-usual energy future has continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels.

So continuing our use of oil and coal, et cetera.

And also continued growth in energy demand from economic development and population growth.

So as the global population continues to grow and as countries become more and more economically-developed and using more energy, then of course then, yes, this energy demand grows as a result.

The second is all about sustainable energy future.

Now this has a major shift towards renewable energies and recyclable energies, such as nuclear power or solar or wind.

But also there's this move towards net zero for carbon emissions.

Fossil fuel uses balanced by removing carbon, so using capture, sorry, carbon capture technology to remove carbon from the atmosphere.

But also by using energy sources which release less or zero carbon emissions as well.

Time now for a learning check.

It says, true or false.

Andeep's prediction, which you can see on the screen in front of you, is for a more sustainable energy future.

So let's quickly recap what it is that Andeep said and you can see his statement on the right-hand side.

He says that, "Now that countries are switching to renewables, the trend might slow to 1.

0 degrees Celsius." Now once again, the learning check is for you to decide whether his prediction is for a more sustainable energy future, true or false.

So pause the video here whilst you attempt this learning check.

And the correct answer was true.

Really, really well done because of course, Andeep's statement makes reference to this switch towards renewable energy.

So really well done if you're able to get true as the correct answer.

Climate scientists make predictions about the impacts of different energy futures.

Now a business-as-usual energy future risks very high increases in global temperatures of over four degrees Celsius, warmer than the global average for 1850-1900.

Now if we turn our attention to the graph on the right-hand side and we look specifically at the red shaded area, this is the high-emission scenario.

And we can clearly see the prediction in terms of temperature on the left-hand side by looking at the y-axis.

And this is clearly showing us a scenario where the global temperature increases by four to five degrees Celsius as a result of those high-emission scenario.

Continued increases in carbon emissions risks a range of different severe climate change impacts.

For example, a two degrees Celsius warming could produce a sea level rise of at least two metres.

That will cause widespread damage to island nations, coastal areas and coastal cities.

And once again, this is really, really well-mapped with that map on the right-hand side.

Now you can see there are different shaded areas, and this is showing us the regional mean sea level change in metres.

The darker the colour, the higher the increase in terms of sea level change.

And the yellow circles are showing us the small island developing states, or SIDS.

Now these are areas which are very, very, very vulnerable to those sea level rises.

We can also see as well those different cities which are located on the coast of different continents and countries.

And once again these are very much at risk from the sea level rises.

But it's also the frequency of extreme weather events which would increase as global warming increases.

Now the graphic in front of you once again does a great job and actually illustrating different extreme weather events and their frequency if certain scenarios were to be carried out.

So we've got heavy rains, we've got drought, which refers to prolonged periods of time without rainfall.

And then finally, heat waves, and it's been colour coded.

And on the right-hand side we can see those different, what those colours actually denote.

So for example, we can see a +1 degree warming, +1.

5, all the way down to +4 degree warming.

These are different scenarios.

So let's start with a sustainable scenario, which is a 1-1.

5 degree warm warming.

And so we can see that there will be an increase in terms of heavy rains, droughts and heat waves, but nowhere near as much with the scenario where we continue to rely on fossil fuels.

We can see that heat waves and droughts and heavy rains will all become much more frequent and common as a result.

Time once again for a learning check.

It says, this graph shows that global demand for energy is? Now you've got three options on the screen in front of you.

What you need to do is pause the video here whilst you consider and then select your answer by referring to the graph in front of you.

Best of luck.

And the correct answer was, A, increasing and is met by mostly fossil fuels.

So really well done if you're able to get A as the correct answer.

Another learning check says true or false.

If just the developed countries reduce their use of fossil fuels, this should be enough to achieve a sustainable energy future.

So once again, I'd like you to pause the video whilst you read back through that statement, and then consider and select your answer And the correct answer was false.

Now once again, I'd like you to pause the video whilst you consider as to why or how that statement then is false.

And the reason it's false is that the rising demand for energy is coming from economic development and population growth, which is happening in emerging countries and developing countries, not in developed countries.

So it will not be enough for just developed countries to reduce fossil fuel consumptions, although this will make a significant impact.

So really well done if you're able to get those two answers correct.

So let's try to understand this business-as-usual scenario with a little bit more detail.

Now remember, business-as-usual means a continued reliance on fossil fuels, such as coal and oil.

But this can also include action on carbon emissions.

For example, governments may plan for business-as-usual for where energy actually comes from for fossil fuels, as I said previously.

But they can also look to reduce energy demand through energy efficiency and energy conservation.

So perhaps by bringing in more technology which is energy-efficient, or trying to change people's behaviour in terms of conserving energy.

Energy efficiency then, using less energy for the same task.

For example, a certain type of light bulb may use less energy than a traditional one.

Also energy conservation, reducing energy use by actually changing our behaviour.

So perhaps by using more public transport, perhaps by walking or cycling more rather than using the car.

All of these ways can conserve energy.

Now governments may also continue fossil fuel use but plan to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

But how is that done? Well, something called carbon capture storage or CCS captures CO2 and stores it underground.

Here's a great illustration of what is actually happening there.

Direct air capture, DAC, pulls CO2 outta the atmosphere and stores it.

So these are ways in which we can try to reduce or remove the carbon dioxide that we've produced from the atmosphere in an effort to try to tackle global climate change.

Afforestation is another really good strategy.

So, planting trees.

One hectare of forest can absorb 10-20 tonnes of CO2.

So once again, it's about absorbing and removing the carbon dioxide, which is in our atmosphere.

And using nature through afforestation is a wonderful strategy.

So a quick learning check.

It says true or false, a business-as-usual energy future means no controls on carbon emissions.

What I'd like you to do is pause the video whilst you consider, and then select your answer.

And the correct answer was false.

Now once again, I'd like you to pause the video whilst you consider as to why or how the statement is false.

And the reason it's false is that a business-as-usual energy future refers to a scenario in which fossil fuels continue to be the main source of energy.

A government could then choose to try and reduce carbon emissions resulting from that energy use, or equally, it could decide not to control emissions at all.

So really well done if you're able to get those two answers correct.

So let's now turn our attention to that sustainable future.

A sustainable energy future is where a major shift from fossil fuels to renewable and recyclable energy has taken place.

Net zero is a key concept for achieving a sustainable energy future to keep global warming to just 1.

5 degrees Celsius warmer than the global average for 1850-1900.

Global carbon emissions have to reach this net zero by 2050.

And around 140 countries around the world have agreed targets to achieve these net zero emissions.

In 2019, the UK was the first country in the world to pass a law that requires it to reach net zero by 2050.

But how is the UK actually planning to achieve that net zero target by 2050? There are many, many different plans.

Let's have a look at some of those now.

So the first of which is electricity generation being decarbonized by 2035.

How are they gonna do that? So it's about getting UK off of coal and oil use but looking towards more renewable and recyclable energy types.

Now these could be expanded offshore wind farms, but also more investment in more nuclear power stations as well.

Also nature and land use.

So using more afforestation perhaps to remove some of that CO2 from the atmosphere, but also sustainable farming practises as well.

There's also zero-emission vehicles, so electric vehicles for example.

Banning the sale of new petrol or diesel cars by 2030 is a government policy.

And also investing in EV infrastructure, so charging points for EV vehicles, and also investing in public transport.

So buses and trains, again, to try to reduce the need to use a car when public transport can do the journey just as well.

There's also carbon capture.

So add CCS to industrial cluster.

This can capture 9 million tonnes of CO2 a year by 2035.

We've also got green technology.

So offering grants, offering subsidies, offering money for the development of hydrogen fuel technology.

There's also finally building and heating.

So using solar panels and heat pumps in all new homes really does try to bring down our energy use and also support for insulation as well as boiler upgrades.

So trying to improve the technology in our homes, which then reduces the energy consumption needed for heating and lighting in our homes.

Time now for another learning check, and it says true or false.

Net zero means no greenhouse gas emissions at all.

What you need to do is pause the video whilst you consider, and then select your answer.

And the correct answer was false.

Now once again, I'd like you to pause the video whilst you consider as to why or how this statement is false.

And the reason it's false is that net zero does actually allow for greenhouse gas emissions as long as they are balanced by carbon being removed from the atmosphere.

However, for this to be achieved, greenhouse gas emissions do need to be low.

So really well done if you're able to get those two answers correct.

Time now for our one and only practise task for the first learning cycle.

And it says to read these commitments from two different governments, planning for a business-as-usual energy future and one for a sustainable energy future.

I would like you to colour code them to show which is which.

Now you can see I've used a yellow colour for business-as-usual energy future and a green colour for sustainable future.

You need to choose two colours, read through the statements, and then categorise them into those two different energy futures.

So pause the video here and best of luck.

Time now for some feedback.

I'm gonna start by reading through all the statements that relate to the business-as-usual energy future.

So first of all, encourage exploration for new oil and gas fields.

Terminate limits on the sale of gasoline-powered automobiles.

Eliminate subsidies for EV, electric vehicles, allow customers freedom of choice for light bulbs, dishwashers, washing machines, water heaters and shower heads, disband government groups, research and climate change and withdraw their research.

Now for the sustainable energy future.

We could decarbonize electricity generation by 2035, fund a 450 million pound boiler upgrade scheme to help households switch to low carbon heating, and the sales of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030.

And finally, set legally-binding targets to increase forest cover for the country to 16.

5%.

Now really well done if you were able to get those answers correct.

So we'll add to our second and final learning cycle.

And this is all about different views about energy futures.

Different groups really do have different or contrasting views about energy futures.

Those groups could include the following.

So consumers, people consuming the energy, for example, TNCs, transnational corporations, governments, climate scientists, and finally environmental groups.

Now, we can see a bit of a spectrum here on the screen in front of you on the right-hand side.

And on the left-hand side, we had this business-as-usual future, and on the right-hand side we had this sustainable energy use future.

Now my question to you is, where would you put each group on a continuum between these two energy futures? Now you may like to pause the video here whilst you consider your answer to that question, or better still, have a discussion with someone near you.

So consumers may focus on cost and convenience.

These are the priorities perhaps for a consumer.

So we can see a statement here by a potential consumer.

And he says, "I care most about energy being affordable.

I've got a petrol car and I'm not looking to change it.

EVs are expensive and there aren't enough charging points." Alex's mum said, "I'm prepared to pay just a little bit more for renewable energy because I don't want my kids growing up with climate change.

I cycle if there's a safe route and I take the bus instead of driving to town at the weekends.

So time now for a learning check.

It says, where would you put Izzy's uncle and Alex's mum on the continuum? What you need to do is pause the video here whilst you consider, and then think really, really hard about where you would put these two individuals on that spectrum in front of you.

So, best of luck.

And now for some feedback.

So Izzy's uncle is more towards the end of business-as-usual 'cause he's very worried about the costs of moving perhaps towards an electric vehicle, whereas Alex's mum is more towards the sustainable end.

Now my follow-up question for you is, why? So I'd like you to pause the video whilst you consider as to why you would put these two individuals in those different places on that spectrum.

And the answer.

So Izzy's uncle doesn't want extra cost or inconvenience from moving to renewable energy.

Alex's mum though is happy to pay just a little bit more for sustainable renewable energy, and she accepts some inconvenience to conserve energy.

So really well done if you're able to get those two answers correct.

Now, the attitude of transnational corporations, or TNCs, to energy futures will often depend on the profitability and what matters to customers.

So fossil fuel companies and some heavy industries, for example, in the oil, steel or aviation industries may actually resist change to protect their profit margin and avoid the cost of transforming infrastructure.

So they're more into the business-as-usual scenario.

TNCs have also seen sustainable energy futures as an investment opportunity and are active in renewable energy, EVs, and green technology.

So again, now this is more sustainable energy future.

And finally, where TNCs know that customers care about sustainability, they will market their products as sustainable, energy-efficient and energy-conserving.

So it could be seen that they're perhaps moving towards this sustainable energy future.

But some companies are notorious, they're infamous for perhaps green-washing their products, making their products sound more sustainable than they really are in an effort to appeal to their customer in order to maximise the sales and profit as a result.

When it comes to government attitudes, these are often aligned with national economic priorities and strategic interests.

Take for example the United States of America, which you can see in the map in front of you.

Some governments, particularly in fossil fuel exporting countries, want to continue the use of oil, gas, and coal for economic growth and energy security.

Now if you're looking at that map there on the right-hand side of the USA, you can see the US crude oil production by state in 2020.

And you can see that a large proportion of the southern states of the USA at least are known for drilling and exporting oil around the world, as well as for domestic use.

So it's in the USA's current national and strategic interest to perhaps use their own fossil fuel for its own energy security.

Meanwhile, though some oil-rich countries are investing heavily in renewables for domestic use so as to leave as much oil or gas as possible to sell to other countries, oil-rich Saudi Arabia, which is shown in the graph on the left-hand side, actually plans to have 20% of its energy from solar by 2030.

Now Saudi Arabia is perfectly located to be able to really take advantage of the solar energy it receives from the sun.

Meanwhile, as you can see on the graph in front of you in the bottom left, that it's still using 60% from gas and 11% from oil.

While perhaps by moving towards solar energy, it can then export and sell those fossil fuels to other countries around the world and thereby make much more profit for its economy.

So let's continue with this theme of government attitudes and how they're often aligned with national economic priorities and strategic interests.

Countries that are threatened by sea level rise, for example, island nations such as Tuvalu, campaign for sustainable energy futures since they know that the rises in sea levels directly threatens their nation.

Furthermore, countries that believe green technology will generate jobs and economic growth may push ahead with net zero policies to actually achieve this, since by prioritising the environment in this way, it also goes hand in hand then with economic growth as well.

Time now for a learning check.

It says, why does Tuvalu, a nation of nine small, low-lying islands in the Pacific Ocean, argue for a sustainable energy future? So you've got four options on the screen there.

What you need to do is pause the video, read through the options, and select what you think is the correct answer.

And the correct answer was D, it is directly threatened by sea level rise.

Really well done if you're able to select D as the correct answer.

So what about climate scientists and environmental groups? Well, 97% of climate scientists who have published their research agree that humans are causing global warming and climate change.

For that 97%, there is no doubt that human activity is responsible for climate change.

Compelling evidence on the rate and impacts of climate change also means there is strong support among climate scientists for reaching net zero emissions by 2050.

Now, environmental groups reject the business-as-usual model and campaign for rapid transitions to net zero.

They also push for reduced energy consumption, the protection of vulnerable ecosystems and communities and sustainable development.

Time now for a really interesting learning fact.

It says, these countries, which you can see on the left-hand side of the screen, so China, Germany, India, and UK, these countries have all signed up to achieving net zero, but on very different timescales, which you can see there, 2045, 2050, 2060, and 2070.

See if you can match up the country to the year they plan to reach net zero.

Now how are you going to do this? Well, you need to look at the graph on the right-hand side where those four same countries are shown.

On the left-hand side we can see the annual CO2 emissions.

We can see China, India, Germany, and the United Kingdom.

So once again, you need to try to match up the country to the year they plan to reach net zero.

So pause the video here whilst you attempt this learning check, and best of luck.

And now for the answers.

So China plans to reach net zero by 2060.

Currently we can see that China is leading the way in terms of this graph, in terms of carbon emissions.

It is aiming to reach net zero by 2060.

Germany is planning to do it by 2045, India by 2070, and finally, UK by 2050.

So really, really well done if you're able to match those correctly.

So time now for our one and only practise task for our final learning cycle.

And it says, to read the information and then answer the question.

So you can see that I've given you some information about a new AI data centre for Lincolnshire.

And on the right-hand side you've got the question.

The question is, explain how the proposed data centre is likely to be viewed by two of the following, and I've given you four different groups to choose from.

The first is UK government, then we have environmental groups, we have UK consumers, and finally, transnational corporations, or TNCs.

So what I need you to do right now then is pause the video here whilst you attempt this practise task.

Best of luck.

And now for some feedback.

So your answer may have included the following.

Environmental groups would not support the project because adding a data centre that increases CO2 emissions by 850,000 tonnes per year is just not sustainable.

It sounds as though it would not be easy to power the data centre using renewable energy.

The UK government is committed to achieving net zero by 2050.

So it is hard to see how this data centre fits with that plan.

Maybe the government priorities economic growth over its net zero commitment.

Possibly the data centre could be powered by nuclear energy, which would allow the government to both invest in AI and still meet its net zero target in 2050.

It continues.

UK consumers are likely to support investment in AI if it creates jobs and makes the economy grow, as that benefits everyone.

People also might be keen to have more AI in their lives, especially if there are important advances in AI in healthcare, for example.

And finally, TNCs are likely to be very interested in AI if it reduces their costs and increases their profits.

I think most TNCs would support the new data centre and would not be concerned about the increase in energy use and the likely massive increase in carbon dioxide emissions.

They might see government investment in the data centre as providing opportunities for them.

So really well done if you're able to include anything like that in your own answer.

Right now to our learning summary and what you need to know from today's lesson.

Well, energy futures are different scenarios about energy use and its impact in the future.

Business-as-usual energy futures see most energy continuing to come from fossil fuels.

And finally, sustainable energy futures would replace fossil fuels with renewables and see carbon emissions reach net zero.

So really well done during today's lesson, it was a pleasure teaching you.

And I will see you again on the next lesson.

Goodbye.