Experiments to determine how likely an outcome is
Lesson details
Learning outcome
I can determine the likelihood of an outcome by designing and carrying out an experiment.
Key learning points
- An experiment can be designed to determine how likely an outcome is.
- An experiment can be carried out and the outcomes recorded.
- The outcomes can be considered and the likelihood of each outcome stated.
Keywords
Experiment - An experiment is a repetition of a trial multiple times in order to observe how often each outcome occurs.
Common misconception
A small number of trials in an experiment is enough to provide conclusive findings.
Even in situations where we know that the different outcomes of a trial are equally likely happen, one outcome may happen more often than the others. E.g. when we flip a coin 10 times, we don't always get the exact same number of heads and tails.
Teacher tip
The links to Desmos files simulate experiments with large numbers of trials. Move the sliders to see results from different experiments. This can show that repeating experiments does not always produce the same results and that experiments with more trials are more likely to have consistent results.
Licence
Lesson video
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Prior knowledge starter quiz
6 Questions
Q1.__________ is a single predefined test.
Q2.The likelihood of an outcome can be described as __________ if its likelihood of happening is the same as its likelihood of not happening.
Q3.Which statement describes the meaning of 'unlikely'?
Q4.Which term belongs at point E on the scale of likelihoods?
Q5.A bag contains counters that are each labelled with a letter from A to C. One counter is chosen at random from the bag. Which term describes the likelihood of choosing the letter 'B'?
Q6.A regular six-sided dice is rolled. Match the events with the term that describes their likelihood of happening.
likely
certain
unlikely
impossible
even chance
Assessment exit quiz
6 Questions
Q1.__________ is a repetition of a trial multiple times in order to observe how often each outcome occurs.
Q2.The __________ an experiment contains, the more confident you can be about any conclusions made based on its results.
Q3.During an experiment, a toy brick is dropped 100 times and its landing position is noted. Based on the results in the bar chart, which way is the brick least likely to land when it is dropped?
Q4.Sofia is planning experiment involving dropping slices of buttered toast to see which way around it is most likely to land. Which number of trials would produce the most reliable conclusion?
Q5.Jacob conducts an experiment where he flips a coin 10 times to check whether landing 'heads' is equally likely as landing 'tails'. How could this experiment be improved?
Q6.Jacob flips a coin 10 times. It lands 'heads' 3 times and 'tails' 7 times. Which statement is true?
To help you plan your 9 maths lesson on: Experiments to determine how likely an outcome is, download all teaching resources for free and adapt to suit your pupils' needs...
To help you plan your 9 maths lesson on: Experiments to determine how likely an outcome is, download all teaching resources for free and adapt to suit your pupils' needs.
The starter quiz will activate and check your pupils' prior knowledge, with versions available both with and without answers in PDF format.
We use learning cycles to break down learning into key concepts or ideas linked to the learning outcome. Each learning cycle features explanations with checks for understanding and practice tasks with feedback. All of this is found in our slide decks, ready for you to download and edit. The practice tasks are also available as printable worksheets and some lessons have additional materials with extra material you might need for teaching the lesson.
The assessment exit quiz will test your pupils' understanding of the key learning points.
Our video is a tool for planning, showing how other teachers might teach the lesson, offering helpful tips, modelled explanations and inspiration for your own delivery in the classroom. Plus, you can set it as homework or revision for pupils and keep their learning on track by sharing an online pupil version of this lesson.
Explore more key stage 3 maths lessons from the Probability: possible outcomes unit, dive into the full secondary maths curriculum, or learn more about lesson planning.