The scale of likelihoods
Lesson details
Learning outcome
I can show the likelihood of an outcome on a scale.
Key learning points
- A scale can be drawn showing the 5 different likelihoods.
- The likelihood scale can be evaluated to understand why only 5 states are shown.
- Different outcomes for an event can be placed on the likelihood scale.
Keywords
Impossible - An outcome is impossible if there is no possibility that it can happen.
Certain - An outcome is certain if it is guaranteed to happen.
Even chance - An outcome has even chance if its likelihood of happening is the same as its likelihood of not happening.
Common misconception
'Equal chance' means the same as 'even chance'.
When a trial has more than two possible outcomes which are all equally likely to happen, each outcome has less than an even chance of happening. E.g. each number on a dice has the same likelihood of being rolled, but each is less than an even chance.
Teacher tip
Present pupils with a spinners, set of cards, dice or other equipment. For each piece of equipment, ask them to come up with some events that are unlikely to happen and some events that are likely to happen. They could then conduct lots of trials with it and see which events occur most often.
Licence
Lesson video
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Prior knowledge starter quiz
6 Questions
Q1.__________ describes the chance that a particular event will occur.
Q2.Which statement is true for this spinner?
Q3.Which letter is this spinner most likely to land on?
Q4.Select all the multiples of 4.
Q5.Select all the factors of 4.
Q6.Select all the prime numbers.
Assessment exit quiz
6 Questions
Q1.An outcome is __________ if there is no possibility that it can happen.
Q2.Which statement describes the meaning of 'even chance'?
Q3.Match the words with their positions on the scale of likelihoods.
Q4.Match each event with the term that describes their likelihood.
Q5.A bag contains counters that are each labelled with a letter from A to C. One counter is chosen at random from the bag. Which term describes the likelihood of choosing the letter 'A'?
Q6.A regular six-sided dice is rolled. Starting with the least likely, sort the events in increasing order of likelihood.
To help you plan your 9 maths lesson on: The scale of likelihoods, download all teaching resources for free and adapt to suit your pupils' needs...
To help you plan your 9 maths lesson on: The scale of likelihoods, download all teaching resources for free and adapt to suit your pupils' needs.
The starter quiz will activate and check your pupils' prior knowledge, with versions available both with and without answers in PDF format.
We use learning cycles to break down learning into key concepts or ideas linked to the learning outcome. Each learning cycle features explanations with checks for understanding and practice tasks with feedback. All of this is found in our slide decks, ready for you to download and edit. The practice tasks are also available as printable worksheets and some lessons have additional materials with extra material you might need for teaching the lesson.
The assessment exit quiz will test your pupils' understanding of the key learning points.
Our video is a tool for planning, showing how other teachers might teach the lesson, offering helpful tips, modelled explanations and inspiration for your own delivery in the classroom. Plus, you can set it as homework or revision for pupils and keep their learning on track by sharing an online pupil version of this lesson.
Explore more key stage 3 maths lessons from the Probability: possible outcomes unit, dive into the full secondary maths curriculum, or learn more about lesson planning.