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      Predicting the weather

      Lesson details

      Learning outcome

      I can use a simple model to predict the weather.

      Key learning points

      1. A probability model can be used to predict the weather
      2. Some models are better than others at predicting the weather
      3. An incorrect prediction does not necessarily mean the model is so wrong it should be changed

      Keywords

      • Forecast - A forecast is a prediction of a future event occurring (based on data).

      • Extrapolation - Extrapolation is the process of estimating unknown values that are outside the range of existing data.

      Common misconception

      If the weather report has the rain icon, it means it will rain.

      The rain symbol is to denote what type of rain it is likely to be should it rain. The percentage chance of rain then informs us about how likely it is to rain.

      Teacher tip

      This lesson follows on from the lesson on understanding weather data. That lesson should be covered before this one as knowledge from that lesson is assumed here.

      Licence

      This content is © Oak National Academy Limited (2025), licensed on Open Government Licence version 3.0
      except where otherwise stated. See Oak's terms & conditions
      (Collection 2).

      Lesson video

      Loading...

      Prior knowledge starter quiz

      6 Questions

      Q1.
      A rectangle has lengths 2 m by 4 m. Its area is m$$^2$$.

      Correct Answer: 8, eight

      Q2.
      5.5 litres = __________ millilitres.

      0.0055
      0.055
      550
      Correct answer: 5500

      Q3.
      Which likelihood describes an event with a probability of 80%?

      impossible
      unlikely
      even chance
      Correct answer: likely
      certain

      Q4.
      Which fractions are equivalent to 80%?

      $${1}\over{80}$$
      $${1}\over{8}$$
      $${1}\over{5}$$
      Correct answer: $${4}\over{5}$$
      Correct answer: $${80}\over{100}$$

      Q5.
      $$1 : 6 = 0.8 : x$$. What is the value of $$x$$?

      Correct Answer: 4.8, four point eight

      Q6.
      A cuboid has lengths 1 m by 1 m by 1 mm. The volume of the cuboid is mm$$^3$$.

      Correct Answer: 1 000 000, 1,000,000, one million

      6 Questions

      Q1.
      6.5 mm of rain means that every one square metre of area will have 6.5 __________ of water fall on top of it.

      millilitres
      centilitres
      Correct answer: litres
      gallons

      Q2.
      Find the value of $$x$$.

      An image in a quiz
      Correct Answer: 8000, eight thousand

      Q3.
      This graph shows the mean night-time temperature in November each year from 2009 to 2022 in Oakfield. Which year had the lowest mean night-time temperature for November?

      An image in a quiz
      Correct Answer: 2013

      Q4.
      Which likelihood describes an event with a probability of 100%?

      impossible
      unlikely
      even chance
      likely
      Correct answer: certain

      Q5.
      A weather forecast shows 20 days that have a 40% chance of rain. For how many of these 20 days could we expect rain?

      Correct Answer: 8, eight

      Q6.
      The chart shows that it rained on % of the days, during the period of time shown.

      An image in a quiz
      Correct Answer: 60, sixty, 60%

      To help you plan your 9 maths lesson on: Predicting the weather, download all teaching resources for free and adapt to suit your pupils' needs...