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Conditional probability

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Why this why now

This unit is placed here to assist interleaving, and draws upon prior knowledge from the unit 'Probability: theoretical probabilities' in Year 9 moving into more complex models of probability.

Prior knowledge requirements

  • Interpret probability using tables and tree diagrams
  • Understand dependent vs independent events
  • Use multiplication and addition rules in probability

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Why this why now

This unit is placed here to assist interleaving, and draws upon prior knowledge from the unit 'Probability: theoretical probabilities' in Year 9 moving into more complex models of probability.

Prior knowledge requirements

  • Interpret probability using tables and tree diagrams
  • Understand dependent vs independent events
  • Use multiplication and addition rules in probability

Conditional probability

In this unit, pupils use their knowledge of calculating theoretical probabilities and extend it to calculate conditional probabilities.

18 lessons in unit

  1. 1

    Checking and securing displaying outcomes

    I can display outcomes in various ways and place outcomes on the probability scale.
  2. 2

    Checking and securing exhaustive events

    I can work with probabilities as fractions, decimals and percentages and use the fact that exhaustive events sum to 1.
  3. 3

    Probabilities involving algebra

    I can work with algebraic statements using the fact that exhaustive events sum to 1.
  4. 4

    Frequency trees

    I can draw and use a frequency tree to calculate probabilities.
  5. 5

    Checking and securing calculating probabilities from tables

    I can calculate probabilities from tables and two-way tables.
  6. 6

    Checking and securing calculating probabilities from diagrams

    I can calculate probabilities from probability trees and Venn diagrams.
  7. 7

    Experimental probability

    I can decide if a game/object is fair and calculate the experimental probability.
  8. 8

    Experimental vs theoretical probability

    I can see the impact of sample size and compare theoretical probabilities to experimental ones.
  9. 9

    Set notation

    I can use formal language for set notation and see how it relates to various representations.
  10. 10

    Conditional probability in a two-way table

    I can calculate a conditional probability from a two-way table.
  11. 11

    Conditional probability in a Venn diagram

    I can calculate a conditional probability from a Venn diagram.
  12. 12

    Conditional probability in a tree diagram

    I can calculate a conditional probability from a tree diagram.
  13. 13

    Algebra in tree and Venn diagrams

    I can apply my knowledge of probability equations to tree and Venn diagrams to solve problems.
  14. 14

    Constructing three event Venn diagrams

    I can construct a three event Venn diagram.
  15. 15

    Probabilities in three event Venn diagrams

    I can use a three event Venn diagram to calculate probabilities (including conditional).
  16. 16

    Comparing multiple representations to calculate conditional probabilities

    I can compare and contrast the usefulness of the different representations when calculating conditional probabilities.
  17. 17

    Combinations

    I can derive the product rule for counting, including when to divide by 2.
  18. 18

    Advanced problem solving with conditional probability

    I can use my knowledge of conditional probability to solve problems.

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