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Probability: possible outcomes

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Why this why now

This unit is the first introduction to probability and likelihood. Pupils develop their understanding of how likely something is, looking at relative likelihoods and displaying outcomes but without formalising probability using measurable numerical values at this stage. Pupils explore different ways to display outcomes to gain a sense of what it means to say something is likely or unlikely in preparation for more calculative methods and theoretical probability in the next unit.

Prior knowledge requirements

  • Understand outcomes and sample spaces
  • Use fractions and percentages to represent probability
  • Recognise equally likely events and basic probability rules

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Why this why now

This unit is the first introduction to probability and likelihood. Pupils develop their understanding of how likely something is, looking at relative likelihoods and displaying outcomes but without formalising probability using measurable numerical values at this stage. Pupils explore different ways to display outcomes to gain a sense of what it means to say something is likely or unlikely in preparation for more calculative methods and theoretical probability in the next unit.

Prior knowledge requirements

  • Understand outcomes and sample spaces
  • Use fractions and percentages to represent probability
  • Recognise equally likely events and basic probability rules

Probability: possible outcomes

This unit introduces and explores the concept of liklihood as a relative measure, and demonstrates multiple ways to represent likelihood such as Venn diagrams, tree diagrams and two-way tables.

14 lessons in unit

  1. 1

    Equally likely outcomes

    I can state when outcomes will be equally likely.
  2. 2

    Non-equally likely outcomes

    I can state when outcomes will not be equally likely.
  3. 3

    The scale of likelihoods

    I can show the likelihood of an outcome on a scale.
  4. 4

    Experiments to determine how likely an outcome is

    I can determine the likelihood of an outcome by designing and carrying out an experiment.
  5. 5

    Using lists to display outcomes for two events

    I can systematically find all the possible outcomes for two events by listing them.
  6. 6

    Using two-way tables to display outcomes for two events

    I can systematically find all the possible outcomes for two events by using a two-way table.
  7. 7

    Using an outcome tree to display outcomes for two events

    I can systematically find all the possible outcomes for two events by using an outcome tree diagram.
  8. 8

    Using a Venn diagram to display outcomes for two events

    I can systematically find all the possible outcomes for two events by using a Venn diagram.
  9. 9

    Comparing representations of outcomes for two events

    I can identify the same outcome across all the different representations.
  10. 10

    Using lists to display outcomes for more than two events

    I can systematically find all the possible outcomes for more than two events by listing them.
  11. 11

    Using an outcome tree to display outcomes for more than two events

    I can systematically find all the possible outcomes for more than two events by using an outcome tree diagram.
  12. 12

    Using a Venn diagram to display outcomes for more than two events

    I can systematically find all the possible outcomes for more than two events by using a Venn diagram.
  13. 13

    Comparing representations of outcomes for more than two events

    I can identify the same outcome across all the different representations.
  14. 14

    Problem solving with possible outcomes

    I can choose an appropriate diagram to display the outcomes for different events.

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